Optimism about the direction of the national economy rose to a two-year high this month, even as Americans’ ratings of present-day economic conditions regressed, extending their largest decline since the initial months of the pandemic.
Thirty-eight percent of Americans say the national economy is getting better, double the number in December and matching its highest since July 2019. That surpasses its long-term average, dating to early 1986, by 16 percentage points, and is among the top 3 percent of readings.
At the same time, about as many, 34 percent, think the economy is getting worse, up 6 points since May to match its highest since January. The rest, 29 percent, think it’s staying the same.
While optimism is robust in historical terms, the overall Consumer Comfort Index, based on assessments of the current national economy, personal finances and the buying climate, hit a three-month low of 51.5 on its 0-100 scale, extending a four-week, 5.4-point drop from its pandemic peak. The decline is its largest setback since the index bottomed out in May 2020 after an historic pandemic-spurred freefall.
Americans’ ratings of the national economy are down 4.6 points from their pandemic high five weeks ago, including 1.7 points just this week, to a three-month low of 46.5. The gradual decline is its largest since early January.
At 44.4, the buying climate subindex, based on views of whether or not it’s a good time to buy things, also is at a three-month low, down 6.3 points from its peak of the pandemic four weeks ago. Personal finance ratings, for their part, have stabilized since falling 6.0 points from their pandemic high, also four weeks ago – the largest decline in this subindex since the onset of the pandemic.
Among groups, the CCI among Americans with annual household incomes less than $50,000 has sustained the largest decline, down 12.1 points in four weeks to 35.8, a low since late February. That compares with little change among higher earners: The CCI among adults earning $50,000 to $100,000 is down 5.3 points over the same time period, to 58.5; and among Americans earning $100,000 or more it’s essentially unchanged, nearly matching its pandemic peak in mid-May.