Americans’ assessments of the national economy advanced by their most in 13 years this week, lifting the overall Consumer Comfort Index to a new pandemic high.
The advance comes as major stock market indices continue to hit at all-time highs, unemployment is at a 16-month low and the economy is projected to grow by its fastest pace since the early 1980s. The stock market and employment both are strong correlates of consumer sentiment.
There are competing pressures; enhanced unemployment benefits are set to expire Monday and inflation is at a nearly 13-year high.
Other recent polls show worsening economic expectations. The CCI, by contrast, is a current-sentiment index, with expectations measured separately on a monthly basis. That’s because of the different nature of current sentiment, which is more rooted in experience, and expectations, which are more speculative; as well as the fact that they at times move in different directions.
The CCI, based on ratings of the current national economy, the buying climate and personal finances, is up 6.7 points in six weeks, its largest cumulative increase since July 2020, after its unprecedented decline in that spring’s pandemic shutdown. At 58.2 on its 0-100 scale, it’s its highest since March 2020, up 23.5 points from its nearly six-year low last May.
The national economy subindex is up 3.9 points this week, its largest one-week gain since December 2007 and among the top 10 weekly increases in continuous data since December 1985. That boosts the subindex to 54.8, a high since late March 2020. Its gains are driven almost exclusively by Democrats, up 10.1 points, compared with essentially no change among Republicans or independents.
The CCI’s remaining two gauges held near their pandemic-era highs. At 70.6, the subindex based on Americans’ ratings of their personal finances is fully recovered from its sharp decline last spring, now virtually even with its all-time high of 71.2 in January 2020. The buying climate gauge, at 49.4, is just off its pandemic high of 50.7 in mid-June.
The national economy subindex, while up sharply this week, still lags the other gauges in long-term recovery, 12.3 points short of its pre-pandemic level. The overall index is just 4.8 points off its position before the pandemic struck.