Problematic polling projections in the 2016 election have generated substantial interest in alternative methodologies for increasing accuracy of election forecasting. Langer Research Associates is offering half-day private workshops on a promising strategy, multilevel regression with poststratification, or MRP.

MRP has grown in popularity in recent years among researchers seeking to improve survey weighting techniques, particularly in making state-level election forecasts. By combining pre-election polls with Census data and other variables, MRP provides a powerful approach for improving opinion estimates by pooling information across groups. The technique offers a robust alternative to traditional weighting techniques, whose weaknesses may have contributed to polling errors in the 2016 elections.

Our workshops will be based on internal research that employed MRP to predict state-level election results using national tracking poll data. This approach proved highly accurate for the 2016 election, exactly predicting the estimated 2-point national popular vote margin and correctly forecasting the outcome in 49 of 50 states, all but Michigan. This approach has been tested in the last five presidential elections, correctly predicting the outcome in 46 states in 2000, 47 in 2004 and 48 in 2008 and 2012 alike.

These tutorials will be geared toward applied survey researchers and campaign professionals interested in employing this technique in their future work. Familiarity with R is recommended though not required. Presentations can be customized to clients’ needs. See a more detailed summary and please contact us for details at info@langerresearch.com

With less than a month to go, our latest ABC News/Washington Post poll finds the big split among whites is on college education, not gender, in both views of Donald Trump’s recently leaked tape and in horserace vote choice. Media coverage came from outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Politico, MSNBC, The Huffington Post, Breitbart, The Hill, New York Magazine, Slate, The Christian Science Monitor, Mic, The Japan Times, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the Financial Times, The Times of Israel, the Kuwait News Agency, the Daily Mail, The Hindu, and Israel Hayom.

Our second ABC/Washington Post poll of September was released this week, covering the state of the race ahead of the first presidential debate as well as a look at the deep divides in views on race and gender among Americans. It’s gotten considerable pickup, including coverage from CNN, Politico, MSNBC, The Huffington Post, Fox News Latino, The Boston Globe, Vox, The Atlantic, National Review, The Hill, the Financial Times, The Washington Times, the New York Daily News, Breitbart, Rolling Stone, Mic, Mediaite, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Daily Iowan, The Salt Lake Tribune, The Economic Times, the International Business Times, The Times of Israel, The Irish Times, The Hindu and Israel Hayom.

We released two analyses of the 2016 race from our latest ABC News-Washington Post poll this week, one covering the presidential election and the other a deep dive on individuals’ views on the state of the country and how they impact vote choices. The poll’s received coverage from a variety of outlets, including CNN, CBS News, Time, NBC News, Politico, The Week, The Washington Times, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, The Providence Journal, The Straits Times and The Economic Times.

With just two months left to go until Election Day, Hillary Clinton’s unfavorable ratings reached a new high in our latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, while Donald Trump remained as unpopular as ever. The poll’s been picked up by Time, The Wall Street Journal, The Christian Science Monitor, Fox News, Politico, Breitbart, The Washington Times, USA Today, New York Magazine, The Hill, Vanity Fair, Business Insider, the New York Daily News, New York Observer, MarketWatch and the Daily Mail, among others, in addition to coverage from ABC and the Post.

A new Phi Delta Kappa survey finds no consensus among Americans on the basic role of the nation’s public schools, with fewer than half saying academic achievement should be emphasized over work skills or preparation for citizenship.

Delving into a wide range of key issues in public education, the poll is the 48th annual survey by PDK. Formerly the PDK/Gallup poll, the survey now is produced for the international association of professional educators by Langer Research Associates.

Among other results:

• When given a direct choice, 68 percent of Americans say it’s better for their local public schools to have more career-technical or skills-based classes than more honors or advanced academic classes.
• By an even bigger majority, the public says that when a public school is failing, the best approach is to replace its teachers and staff while keeping the school itself open.
• School ratings are linked closely with the extent to which parents feel their school communicates with them effectively and is open to their input – useful guidance for administrators seeking to improve their schools’ standing with the public.

PDK is presenting the survey today at an event at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., and full results are available at the PDK Poll website.

The survey been covered by outlets such as The Washington Post, Education Week, Education World, U.S. News & World Report, Quartz, the Detroit Free Press and the The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

We’ve followed the main analysis of our latest ABC News/Washington Post poll with four additional pieces on key elements of the 2016 presidential election. One looks at the role of Donald Trump’s perceived qualifications and honesty in his support; others look at young adults, white Catholics and whites by gender and education – particularly, college educated white women vs. non-college white men – as crucial voting groups.

Following the party conventions, our latest ABC News/Washington Post poll finds Hillary Clinton consolidating her support, with an 8-point lead over Donald Trump in the general election horserace. It’s received significant attention, netting more than 30,000 shares on ABCNews.com and coverage from many outlets, including CNN, CBS News, TIME, Politico,The Huffington Post, USA Today, the New York Daily News, The Atlantic, The Guardian, the Chicago Tribune, FiveThirtyEight, CNBC, the New York Post, Vox, Slate, The Hill, The Christian Science Monitor, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, The Indian Express, the Daily Mail, Salon, New York Magazine, The Financial Times, Deutsche Welle, the Bangor Daily News, the Duluth News Tribune, The Michigan Daily, The Standard (Hong Kong) and the Toronto Star.

Our pre-convention ABC News/Washington Post poll, focused on the presidential election and, separately, race relations, has received widespread pickup, including in Politico, The Boston Globe, CBS News, Fox News, the Los Angeles Times, the Huffington Post, Bloomberg Politics, The Washington Times, the Daily Mail, the New York Daily News, Voice of America, The Hill, The Sacramento Bee, the Daily Comet (Louisiana), The New Indian Express, OneIndia and Newsweek Pakistan – as well as, of course, ABC and the Post.

Our newest ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that most Americans disapprove of the FBI’s recommendation not to prosecute Hillary Clinton for her email practices while secretary of state. Our analysis has received more than 15,000 shares and 4,000 comments on ABCNews.com. Beyond ABC and the Post, media coverage includes CNN, Fox News, Politico, Time, the Huffington Post, the Daily Mail, the Washington Times, the New York Post, UPI, the Denver Post, The Columbus Dispatch, Newsday, The Fresno Bee and many local newspapers and broadcast outlets.